Deal & transaction · Leveraged buyout

LBO model — mid-cap specialty chemicals target

A hypothetical sponsor-backed buyout of a specialty chemicals manufacturer, built to test whether the deal clears a 20%+ IRR hurdle under realistic leverage and exit assumptions.

IndustrySpecialty chemicals
Deal size (assumed)₹410 Cr enterprise value
Build time~40 hours
ToolsExcel

Context

Modeled as a financial sponsor acquiring a family-owned specialty chemicals manufacturer with stable cash flows but limited existing leverage — the kind of target a mid-market PE fund would screen for a control buyout. The core question: at what entry multiple and leverage level does this deal clear a 20%+ IRR hurdle over a 5-year hold?

Key assumptions

Entry EV / EBITDA7.2x
Entry leverage (Debt / EBITDA)4.5x
Revenue CAGR (5-yr)9.0%
EBITDA margin (exit)21.5%
Exit EV / EBITDA7.5x
Hold period5 years

Approach

Built bottom-up from a three-statement operating model, layered with a debt schedule (term loan + revolver), mandatory amortization, and a cash sweep. Returns are triangulated three ways — IRR, MOIC, and a levered vs. unlevered decomposition — to separate the return that came from operating improvement versus the return that came from leverage.

Self-critique

"The margin expansion assumption (18.5% → 21.5%) is the single most load-bearing number in this model and the one I have the least real evidence for. In a live diligence process this is exactly the line item I'd want a QoE report to stress-test before trusting the IRR."
Base case IRR
22.4%
3.1x MOIC over 5-year hold

Sensitivity — IRR by entry multiple × leverage

4.0x4.5x5.0x
6.5x26.1%27.8%29.2%
7.2x19.8%22.4%24.6%
8.0x14.5%16.9%18.8%

Skills demonstrated

LBO structuring
Debt scheduling
Returns analysis
Sensitivity modeling